In order to be able to react as quickly as possible to the demands of the expanding city, the Office for Statistics and Elections has now produced a new population forecast. The results form the basis for work in the areas of urban development and city and traffic planning, as well as general management of residential urban infrastructure facilities such as day nurseries, schools and other institutions. According to the new population forecast for Leipzig, the number of inhabitants is expected to rise to 720,000 in the year 2030. As of now, it represents the binding working basis for the planning offices in the city administration.
The results of the calculations show that further growth in the city's population can also be expected in the next few years. For the forecasting horizon 2030, a population of around 722,000 is anticipated in the average variant (main variant). The identified upper and lower variants with approximately 674,000 to 770,000 inhabitants (2030) represent a possible corridor of future population development. This wide corridor can firstly be explained by the long forecasting period up to 2030. Secondly, the forecast is made more difficult due to unpredictable or hard to predict patterns of behaviour by people and great uncertainties regarding future migration movements.
The calculation results also show that birth rates will rise substantially again on account of the population becoming younger as the majority of people moving to Leipzig are at an age when it is normal to start a family. The number of new births this year is expected to be in excess of 7,000. The 8,000 mark could be reached after 2021.
"This pleasing development means that we will continue to be confronted by enormous challenges in planning the kindergarten and school network," said Burkhard Jung, Mayor of Leipzig. "We must intensify our efforts from the last few years even more if the number of births increases by several hundred every year." The most important action areas are housing, transport and schools.
In addition to several offices in the city administration, 14 scientists and expert consultants were involved in producing the population forecast. This working party defined the uncertain parameters that were necessary for the forecast, especially in regard to future migration patterns. Since there are contradictory opinions in expert circles concerning the further development of the current refugee flows, the presented population forecast is surrounded by additional uncertainty and only shows results for the next 15 years instead of the normal period of 20 years.